Prediction track record

We don't just report outages — we predict them, by tracing upstream stressors to the providers that depend on them. This is the honest scorecard: every forward-looking call and whether it materialized.

65%

accuracy

15/23

predictions corroborated

32h 20m

avg lead time

Open predictions

Forward-looking risks we're flagging right now — before they show on a status page.

predicted Wildfire — Santa Rosa Island, CA → Datadog 52% confidence ⏱ ~1h 30m

predicted Wildfire — Santa Rosa Island, CA → AT&T 43% confidence ⏱ ~1h 30m

Recent outcomes

hit Weather: Wildfire → Datadog

flagged at 52% confidence · materialized ~12h 40m after we flagged it · 2 days ago

hit Weather: Wildfire → Datadog

flagged at 52% confidence · materialized ~71h 20m after we flagged it · 2 days ago

miss Weather: hurricane → Verizon

flagged at 55% confidence · 4 days ago

hit Weather: Wildfire → Datadog

flagged at 38% confidence · materialized ~99h 30m after we flagged it · 5 days ago

hit Weather: Wildfire → Datadog

flagged at 38% confidence · materialized ~44h 15m after we flagged it · 1 week ago

miss Weather: hurricane → Verizon

flagged at 55% confidence · 1 week ago

miss Weather: hurricane → Verizon

flagged at 55% confidence · 1 week ago

hit Weather: Wildfire → Datadog

flagged at 38% confidence · materialized ~92h 44m after we flagged it · 1 week ago

hit Weather: Wildfire → Cloudflare

flagged at 43% confidence · materialized ~57h 5m after we flagged it · 1 week ago

hit Grid: PJM → Cloudflare

flagged at 35% confidence · materialized ~1h 15m after we flagged it · 1 week ago

miss Grid: PJM → Cloudflare

flagged at 40% confidence · 1 week ago

miss Grid: PJM → Cloudflare

flagged at 43% confidence · 1 week ago

miss Grid: PJM → Cloudflare

flagged at 43% confidence · 2 weeks ago

hit Grid: PJM → Cloudflare

flagged at 43% confidence · materialized ~8h 45m after we flagged it · 2 weeks ago

hit Weather: Wildfire → Cloudflare

flagged at 43% confidence · materialized ~30h 50m after we flagged it · 2 weeks ago

miss Grid: PJM → Cloudflare

flagged at 49% confidence · 2 weeks ago

hit Weather: Wildfire → Datadog

flagged at 38% confidence · materialized ~44h 15m after we flagged it · 2 weeks ago

hit Weather: Wildfire → Cloudflare

flagged at 43% confidence · materialized ~40m after we flagged it · 2 weeks ago

hit Grid: PJM → Cloudflare

flagged at 49% confidence · materialized ~40m after we flagged it · 2 weeks ago

hit Grid: PJM → Cloudflare

flagged at 43% confidence · materialized ~1h 49m after we flagged it · 2 weeks ago

hit Weather: Wildfire → Cloudflare

flagged at 43% confidence · materialized ~12h 40m after we flagged it · 2 weeks ago

miss Grid: PJM → Cloudflare

flagged at 49% confidence · 2 weeks ago

hit Weather: Wildfire → Datadog

flagged at 38% confidence · materialized ~6h 35m after we flagged it · 2 weeks ago